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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."